Might Europe develop its personal cellular working system?

Not too long ago, we requested if it was doable for Europe to have a dominant smartphone once more. The reply was easy: no, not until there’s some form of miracle.

The explanation behind that is multifaceted, however the core level is that as a result of Asia hosts the vast majority of the world’s cellular manufacturing amenities, it’s borderline unattainable for European firms to create a ok cellphone at a low sufficient value to succeed.

However, right here at TNW, we had one other query: may Europe launch its personal cellular working system?

Why do we’d like a European cellular OS?

On first inspection, it’s a wonderful thought. A European working system may wrestle a few of the energy again from Silicon Valley behemoths iOS and Android. Additionally, it wouldn’t require using factories or uncooked supplies, because the software program could possibly be developed within the continent itself.

Then let’s not neglect that Europe has been on the forefront of digital privateness regulation, with initiatives just like the GDPR and strict data-scraping laws imposing residents’ rights in opposition to data-hungry US tech giants.

A European cellular working system, then, could possibly be used to make sure privateness on the highest stage for folks and prolong a component of management over the tech ecosystem. That latter level is especially essential, as a result of not solely do Apple and Google have management over the apps that seem on their platforms, additionally they take large income cuts from publishers. That’s a staggering quantity of energy and earnings — all of which the EU may make use of.

However… is a European OS even doable?

To search out out, I acquired in contact with a number of specialists. Certainly one of them was Jan Stryjak, an affiliate director at Counterpoint Research. He leads the analyst agency’s analysis in Europe, and has over 13 years of expertise within the telecommunications, media, and tech industries.

The very first thing he informed me was that there was no area available on the market for a brand new European — or some other, for that matter — cellular working system. “Two is sufficient,” he says, referring to iOS and Android. There have been makes an attempt prior to now to make Home windows a 3rd dominant cellular OS, however these failed. Whereas Windows Mobile and Symbian had their days within the solar, Android and iOS edged each out.

“It doesn’t work,” Stryjak tells me about the potential for one other working system becoming a member of Apple and Google’s cellular working techniques. Effectively, there goes that dream.

After I pressed Stryjak additional on the probabilities for such a factor, the one potential he noticed was one thing for “the actually area of interest tech inhabitants who care about privateness.”

Let’s speak in regards to the third choice 

This matter of privateness is one thing I mentioned with Wayne Huang, VP of Product Operations at Fairphone. His firm creates units that purpose to be sustainable and local weather impartial, with the purpose of constructing repairable units that give energy again to the buyer.

Certainly one of Fairphone’s core buyer segments is exactly the tech area of interest that cares about privateness. After I requested him how this feature was expressed on their units, Huang pointed me in direction of Fairphone’s partnership with the /e/ Foundation, particularly its Linux-based /e/OS cellular working system. 

Customers of Fairphone are capable of set up the privacy-first /e/OS, which is an open-source working system that doesn’t observe consumer information. Regardless of this, Android apps can nonetheless be used on the platform and /e/OS will warn you about any built-in trackers they supply.

Huang was unable to provide me numbers on how many individuals use /e/OS on Fairphone units. The closest determine I discovered got here from Gaël Duval, the creator of the system. In 2021, he claimed there are “between 25,000 and 35,000 customers of /e/OS” in whole.

For context, there are over a billion iOS users — and that doesn’t embrace different Apple working techniques.

What we’ve discovered, then, is a fairly arduous ceiling for a privacy-focused cellular OS. Presently, this can be a area of interest choice for area of interest units. Sure, it may doubtlessly develop and entice a wholesome variety of customers, however this strategy is unlikely to problem the dominance of Android and iOS.

As an alternative, as Stryjak defined to me, at finest, a brand new OS on cellular units will probably be just like Linux on desktop computer systems: one thing that pulls a faithful fanbase, however fails to make it into the mainstream.

Ending issues there although is boring. We have to run this thought experiment by means of to its logical conclusion and actually work out what would occur if Europe developed its personal cellular working system.

Time to faux

Let’s say that a number of EU member states disregard the above. They suppose the specialists are misguided: there is room for a 3rd main cellular working system and they need to be those to make it. What occurs then?

Effectively, one factor’s for sure: it gained’t be plain crusing.

“I’ve been on quite a few calls with European Commissioners… the place they’ve introduced up a Linux system and requested if they will create one thing like this,” Huang tells TNW. “The problem is that it’s troublesome to convey everybody collectively to work in direction of this purpose.”

Let’s not neglect that the EU consists of 27 particular person nations, all with completely different cultures and agendas. Getting nations which are extra sceptical about large authorities and censorship on board with a European working system can be a tough promote.

Sure, one may argue that it’d assist promote the bloc’s concentrate on digital privateness and holding tech giants to account, nevertheless it’s not as if the EU is struggling to make an impact as it is.

However let’s faux that, in some way, the EU manages to get every nation to agree {that a} European cellular working system is definitely a improbable thought. The subject leapfrogs the invasion of Ukraine, sustainability, fuel costs, and inflation to develop into the urgent matter within the European parliament. What then?

The technical tribulations 

Stryjak from Counterpoint tells TNW that the primary large downside a European cellular working system would face is how it could isolate the continent from the remainder of the planet.

“The world is getting larger, however nearer on the identical time,” he tells TNW. For nearly each perform in trendy society, “it’s worthwhile to have interoperability inside Europe and different markets.” In different phrases, software program must work with different software program, or issues come tumbling down.

If a European cellular OS was created, it’d require an unbelievable quantity of labor to make it perform with current apps and functionalities the world over.

Let’s consider it this manner: would you turn to a cellphone that didn’t have a local Gmail app? Or Twitter? TikTok? Instagram? It will take an inordinate period of time only for these firms to port over their software program — they usually’re a few of the best-resourced organisations on this planet. 

Think about how lengthy it’d take for smaller companies to port over all of the apps it’s possible you’ll want for work or life. It’d be an enterprise of galactic proportions.

Reaching the “identical performance of Samsung and Apple [phones] would take many iterations to get to,” Stryjak continues. And actually? Folks aren’t prepared to attend that lengthy for software program to get good. They need it to work they usually need it to work now.

After which we now have the political issues

Persevering with on this thought experiment, let’s say this magical European cellular OS manages to beat these growth hurdles, and will get each engineer and coder alive to concentrate on making their software program and {hardware} work completely with this new system. What then?

“If there’s a Europe-specific OS, can it function in Russia or China?” Stryjak asks. The main target of this technique would probably be imposing GDPR and digital privateness, so may it function in locations the place these laws aren’t as stringent?

The reply, probably, is not any.

You solely want to take a look at the privacy uproar round HarmonyOS and Huawei’s tribulations with the US to get a sense for the way nations exterior of Europe would react to a state-backed working system. In brief, badly.

If the EU in some way managed to get its member states to comply with create a cellular working system, the chances are high that it’d find yourself under-supported, struggling for customers, and banned in varied nations the world over.

To place that one other approach, it’d be fairly ineffective.

However is there any want for a European cellular OS?

Circling again to the crux of the piece, the reply is just like {hardware}: no, not likely.

The EU has been one of many largest drivers within the digital privateness push and, though it may do much more if it had management over its personal OS, the truth is that it’s already had a big impact on technological privateness. So long as the bloc accommodates such an enormous and prosperous consumer base, it’ll proceed to carry some form of sway over Silicon Valley.

In a dream world, a European cellular working system may enhance lots of issues, however in actuality? Pointless.